The sun fires warning shots, and America’s power grid remains unprotected
Then chaos.
Sparks shoot out of your equipment, shocking you with a jolt strong enough to knock you out of your chair, while igniting your telegraph message sheets. You later discover that some of your fellow operators are still able to send messages even after their batteries are disconnected – not knowing that the telegraph wires are energized by enormous currents induced in the wires by The strongest geomagnetic storm In recorded history.
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That storm, caused by a massive solar flare observed by British astronomer Richard Carrington, unleashed a coronal mass ejection (CME) that collided with Earth’s magnetic field. Such a massive solar storm is known as a Carrington event.
A telegraph operator in 1859 could not help but wonder at current technology, a technology much more vulnerable to sunlight than was the case at the time.
The sun’s cycle is 11 years long, and this year is the peak of the cycle. On February 1, giant sunspot AR4366 — a behemoth that quickly grew from nothing to nearly half the size of the monster behind the Carrington Event — unleashed an X8 solar flare, the most powerful in the 25th solar cycle to date.
In the previous 24 hours, this unstable area had dropped 23 M bombs and four X flares towards the ground. Intense ultraviolet radiation from the X8 explosion ionized the upper atmosphere, knocking out shortwave radio communications across the South Pacific for hours.
Even more worrying is the potential CME. The explosion released dense plasma that could be directed toward Earth. If it arrives with enough force, it will squeeze the Earth’s magnetosphere and generate powerful geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) – in other words, it will electrify the Earth’s surface. GICs can in turn transmit current to the high voltage transmission lines that form our backbone Electrical network. This could be a problem.
Modern society is infinitely more dependent on electricity than in the era of the telegraph. An event on the scale of Carrington today would not only start some fires in the telegraph offices. This could risk melting or destroying hundreds of massive high-voltage transformers, leading to widespread power outages that could last for months or years. Supply chains will collapse, water systems will fail, fuel pumps will fail, communications will disappear, and refrigeration will cease. Estimates of economic damage range from $600 billion to $2.6 trillion in the United States alone, with untold lives lost due to lack of heat, medicine, and emergency services.
Despite clear warnings, America Network He remains seriously vulnerable.
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In my 2023 report for the Texas Public Policy Foundation, Texas Defense, I detailed how both natural geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) and man-made electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attacks pose existential risks to the grid.
A hazardous event could damage or destroy high-voltage (EHV) transformers that cannot be effectively replaced, resulting in prolonged power outages across the state and beyond.
But there is good news: today there are hardware solutions that have proven cost-effective. Neutral blocking devices equipped with capacitors, installed in grounded high-voltage transformers, can prevent catastrophic damage. These devices block quasi-direct current (quasi-DC) GICs caused by solar storms or the E3 component of an EMP burst, while allowing normal 60 Hz AC power to flow unhindered. These devices isolate harmful ground currents, preventing overheating, destructive harmonics, voltage collapse, and eventual breakdown.
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As a bonus, these devices also mitigate lower-level GICs that currently shave years off the life of transformers and cost the industry billions annually in reactive power losses.
The costs of these devices have decreased significantly as the technology has matured. A nationwide deployment to protect the 6,000 most vulnerable transformers would require a one-time investment of approximately $4 billion – a small fraction of the trillions at risk.
However, utility and transportation companies remain hesitant, wary of passing on even modest costs to taxpayers. Regulators, on the other hand, have dragged their feet, relying on criteria derived from studies that largely downplay the threat.
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Many of these vulnerabilities assessments go back to European research conducted more than thirty years ago, during an unusually quiet solar period. These models assumed lower GIC intensity and failed to account for today’s more interconnected, high-voltage grid — or the more active Sun we’re now seeing in Cycle 25.
Compounding the problem is the fact that most large power transformers are no longer made in America. The majority come from China, South Korea and Germany, and typical delivery periods extend to four years or more under normal circumstances. If dozens or hundreds are destroyed in a severe solar storm, replacement could take a decade or more, time we wouldn’t get in the event of a prolonged power outage.
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With sunspot AR4366 still visible and more outbursts likely in the coming days, the warning couldn’t be clearer. Congress and state legislatures must act quickly to mandate or incentivize the installation of neutral blocking devices. Utilities must prioritize grid resilience over short-term pricing concerns. Regulators must update standards so they reflect real-world risks, not contradictory assumptions from a sleeping sun.
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The Carrington event literally shocked the telegraph operators. A repeat of this would shock an entire pre-industrial civilization.
We have the technology to prevent that. We should work on that.
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